Blog > October Stats are In: Appreciation Slows
Statistics for the month of October are officially in! Last month’s stats show a still-strong market, but the appreciation numbers have begun to slow. As we finish the year, we’re monitoring numbers closely in anticipation of our “new normal”, which will be established in Q4 2021 and Q1/Q2 2022. The earliest indications are that appreciation numbers will be much higher than Austin’s historical average, but lower than the 30-40% increases we saw at the height of the pandemic boom.
- Total sales are down -18.4% in the metro and -21.8% in the city over Oct 2020
- The city of Austin saw an Average Appreciation of “only” +12.1%
- The 5-county area saw Median $/SF of +36.4%
- All other appreciation numbers in both the city of Austin and the metro were in the 20-30% range
- 2021 sold units were on par with 2019 unit sales
| 5-County Area | 10-2020 | 10-2021 | % Change |
| Total Sales | 3674 | 2997 | -18.43% |
| Avg Sold Price | $466,893 | $563,623 | 20.72% |
| Median Sold Price | $365,000 | $456,686 | 25.12% |
| Avg Sold $/SF | $214.73 | $283.56 | 32.05% |
| Median Sold Price/SF | $177.85 | $242.60 | 36.41% |
| Median Days on Market | 9 | 8 | -11.11% |
| City of Austin | 10-2020 | 10-2021 | % Change |
| Total Sales | 1484 | 1160 | -21.83% |
| Avg Sold Price | $614,973 | $689,401 | 12.10% |
| Median Sold Price | $460,000 | $560,000 | 21.74% |
| Avg Sold $/SF | $290.13 | $372.44 | 28.37% |
| Median Sold Price/SF | $246.74 | $324.18 | 31.39% |
| Median Days on Market | 7 | 8 | 14.29% |
| 10-2019 | 10-2021 | % Change | |
| 5-County Sales | 2910 | 2997 | 2.99% |
| Austin Sales | 1246 | 1160 | -6.90% |
What does this mean?
The “pandemic boom” really hit stride in the fall of 2020 and continued into the summer of 2021, but prices stabilized in March 2021. Now that we’re comparing Year Over Year numbers with the fall of 2021, we’ll see a smaller % appreciation. Since 2021 pricing has stabilized, the numbers to watch will be spring 2022 sold price numbers and appreciation, at which point we’ll have an indication of what Austin’s “new normal” will be.
If you’re a buyer:
The fall and winter markets almost always provide buying opportunities. There is generally less competition. The downside is that life often gets in the way. If you do have the time and motivation to continue searching for your new home around the holidays, you can often get more attractive pricing than you will in the spring (but there will be fewer homes to choose from.)
If you’re a seller:
The fall and winter months are almost always tougher for sellers. Homes do sell and pricing remains strong, but it’s a different experience than sellers saw only a few months ago. While we do see many multiple offers, they are not guaranteed. If you’re a seller, it usually makes sense to take your property off the market sometime in November in anticipation of relisting it in the spring. If you remove the property from the market for 90 days, it will be a “new listing” in the spring.
Always bear in mind that real estate is hyperlocal and hyper-situational so leave us a message below if you have questions over your specific market or situation.
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